Analysis of simulation model application to forecast the railway workers failures

Authors

  • Milan Marković Faculty of transport and traffic engineering, Belgrade
  • Miloš Ivić Faculty of transport and traffic engineering, Belgrade
  • Norbert Pavlović Faculty of transport and traffic engineering, Belgrade
  • Slađana Janković Faculty of transport and traffic engineering, Belgrade

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2298/YJOR0701135M

Keywords:

Railway traffic, safety, renewal theory, human factor, accidents, simulation

Abstract

In this paper the idea of treating the operational service workers as the elements of technique systems is suggested and the renewal theory is used to forecast the number of accidents caused by human factor. The analytical model is presented and limitations for its application are quoted. Furthermore, the simulation model is developed and the conditions for its use are given. The model observes each worker separately and establishes the exact time of arisen failures, the number of failures at some moment t, time tn, to the nth failure, inconsistency of failure number and total number of failures of the observed population. The model is tested on the sample of 348 engine drivers in PE "Serbian Railways" who have made at leas one accident, in order to research the parameters necessary for using the renewal theory and simulation. .

References

Marković, M., Pavlović, N., and Ljubisavljević, I., "Forecasting the number of railway workers’ failures by simulation method", YUINFO, Kopaonik, 2004, Multimedial disc.

Pavlović, N., "Researching work reliability of railway staff with special review of engine drivers of ŽTP Beograd", Master Thesis, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Belgrade, 2004.

Marković, M., Pavlović, N., and Ljubisavljević, I., "Research on railway staff work reliability", X World Conference on Transport Research – WCTR, Istanbul, 2004, Multimedial disc.

Čičak, M., Modelling in Railway Traffic, Želnid, Belgrade, 2003.

Radenković, B., Stanojević, M., and Marković, A., Computer Simulation, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, 1999.

Vukadinović, S., Elements of Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics, Privredni Pregled, Belgrade, 1990.

Vukadinović, S., and Teodorović, D., Elements of Reliability Theory and Renewal Theory of Technical Systems, Privredni Pregled, Belgrade, 1979.

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Published

2007-03-01

Issue

Vol. 17 No. 1 (2007)

Section

Research Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2007 YUJOR

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